Moving from London to Cambridge, two cities that are struggling with rapid gentrification, I’ve long been concerned about how the pace of change disrupts communities’ abilities to survive and thrive. Just last year, Cambridge Local First’s inaugural State of Small Business report confirmed that the national picture for small businesses was reflected in Cambridge – and in short, it is not a good time. Though Cambridge’s independent spirit remains strong, particularly in Central Square, and I am inspired by the power of community to defy, resist or adapt to the seemingly inevitable churn and change of urban life, the headlines make for concerning reading. Multiple independents, restaurants and arts institutions, many long-standing fixtures in the community, have closed their doors to an increasingly frustrated community.
Research has confirmed the considerable pressure on independents in Harvard Square, what is the state of play in Central Square?
Change is clearly afoot, from the Novartis campus and Lafayette Square to Central’s numerous proposed developments. Last month, the Central Square City Lots Study, which had begun with optimism on affordable housing and public space, was met with public anger, particularly at its thin community engagement. The mood further soured with the ill-timed announcement that Starlight Square was to close, despite receiving federal Covid-relief funds to work toward permanence two years ago.
Years of property speculation has led to cultural changes in Central Square: the pricing out of T.T. the Bear’s, whose door closed in 2015 after 42 years, purchase of the EMF Building in 2019 despite considerable community resistance and rapidly rising rents claiming Green Street Studios in 2020, among others. Development plans at the Middle East nightclub complex were reported in 2022, but have since gone quiet.
Cambridge Local First has been advocating for policies to support independent businesses, and asked a group of students from the Initiative on Cities at Boston University for data – could we measure business displacement in Central Square?
Measuring displacement (of business, in this case) has been described as “measuring the invisible,” and not for nothing – displaced businesses are by definition no longer there. The initiative turned to using Google Street View, business directories at the Cambridge Public Library and local news reports to catalog business openings and closings between 2013 and 2023.
We also interviewed 10 business owners across Central Square to get the view from the ground and inquire about commercial rents usually not available publicly.
They praised Central Square’s community as “genuinely diverse, from all walks of life,” with an “inherent quirkiness,” although another had noticed how the customers were now “less price conscious and less artsy.” The reason, they suggested, was that Central “hasn’t been particularly affordable since the early 2000s.” We heard of a landlord insisting that their latest demand of $5,000 a month was “still a discount” though for that small business, it was utterly unaffordable. A restaurateur told us “the landlords took advantage of this explosion of how cool it is around here. It’s just kind of heartless.” Yet, unsurprisingly, the impacts of rising rents were not spread evenly. Several businesses we spoke to were enjoying the security of a long-term lease, and one admitted that the previous tenant had been “grandfathered in on this old, very low rent” one-third of what they had negotiated. Across the board, the picture was clear: Rent pressure is building.
But what about the number of closings? From our data, national concerns about the future of independent businesses are well represented in Central Square, being the biggest “loser” of our categories with a net 11 businesses gone (from five openings, 16 closings). And while we saw a growth in local (seven businesses) and regional chains (five businesses), we also saw a net loss of six international and national chains, which are often associated with mature commercial gentrification. Perhaps this process has begun, but is by no means fully underway.
Can consumer changes explain this? Looking only at retail stores, just over half of the closed independents were retailers. With a net loss of five businesses, independent non-retailers were almost equally as vulnerable. Overall, there was a net loss of 13 retailers of all types, which might undermine Central Square’s reputation as a retail hub. This is despite a city-produced market profile in 2021 finding an unmet demand for retail including $50 million in “general merchandise” and $26 million in fashion: Perhaps there is room for recovery. The report also suggested there was an oversupply of restaurants, bars and grocery stores, which might help explain the considerable turnover in restaurants, with 20 closings and 20 openings across the decade.
This confirmed some fears for independent businesses, but commercial gentrification appears to not have quite kicked into gear. Whether this will remain so in the coming years, particularly with the large numbers of proposed developments, is a question. As one of our interviewees said as she returned to Central Square after two decades away:
“I was surprised to see so many of the businesses that had been around when I was here still here. And I was pleased to see it. But what’s been interesting too is that since the pandemic … now they’re going out of business. Now they’re leaving. So, I think we’re in a wave right now where some people … They’re just not gonna make it.”
Andrew Ward was a tenant organizer in London before moving to the United States to pursue a doctorate looking into gentrification and its resistance. This research was undertaken in partnership with Cambridge Local First via the MetroBridge program at the Boston University Initiative on Cities. Led by international gentrification expert professor Loretta Lees, the program empowers students across Boston University to research pressing urban issues in collaboration with city, town and community leaders. For data to support advocacy efforts, get in touch with David Gross at davgross@bu.edu.
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Actually I am not sure that the classifications used are accurate for some of the businesses in the tally or the article points above.
We have lost many retailers to have their spaces containing shops of a highly specialized nature that the majority of us will never need or use (Tatoos, Marijuana related etc.) .
We have one non-profit grocery store (The Daily Table), one specialized grocery store (H-Mart) and one Department store that sells groceries (Target). Not lots of grocery stores (H-Mart is in a space that used to be a non-profit grocery store; the Daily Table in a space that used to be an Au Bon Pan; and the Target in space that was a furniture store).
We have lost clothing stores, furniture, hardware, things that people need year round. We have had more banks thrust on us and things like the Amazon Returns Facility (not a store).
Several of the lost restaurants were also performance space for arts & music but their replacements less so.
I don’t see a net gain/loss on restaurants, I see several empty ones (like the old Starbucks which there has been speculation on but no use as yet).
I still miss Harvest. Camberville could really use a new food COOP.
Tell me you know nothing about Central Sq without telling me you know nothing about central sq. This part was kind of funny thought “This research was undertaken in partnership with Cambridge Local First via the MetroBridge program at the Boston University Initiative on Cities.” Good times.
London – the epicenter of landed gentry, entitlements, nobility, and the East India Trading Company – has been “struggling with rapid gentrification”? Tell me you know nothing about London without telling me you know nothing about London.
London is a massive city. There are large working class areas in it that are under considerable pressure from gentrification, some have already almost completely turned over. Downplaying gentrification in London is crazy. Listen to this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BjERkQtsvfY
This song sadly reminds me of Central and Harvard square too.